Documents containing estimates of the decline in demand for legal tobacco due to behavioral responses to excise rate increases
Dear Department of the Treasury,
I am writing to request a copy of documents prepared by Treasury since 1 January 2018 that model, estimate, or otherwise quantify the decline in demand for legal tobacco due — in whole or in part — to behavioral responses to tobacco excise rate increases. Please include any documents describing the methodology and methods used to produce such models, estimates or quantifications.
Such documents are alluded to in the "BACK POCKET BRIEF – Illicit tobacco" (FOI 3812, Document 2) which states that:
"The illicit market is driven by a multitude of factors of which the duty rate is only one... When costing increases to excise rates Treasury estimates the decline in demand for legal tobacco due to behavioural responses. This decline in demand includes, for example, a reduction in tax collections due to consumers deciding to quit smoking as well as consumers shifting to the illicit market."
Yours faithfully,
Francis Markham
OFFICIAL
Dear Mr Markham
We write to acknowledge receipt of your request, under the Freedom of Information Act 1982 (FOI Act) on 11 February 2025. The FOI Act provides that we have 14 days to acknowledge, and 30 days to process, the request. This period may be extended if we need to consult third parties or for other reasons. We will advise you if this happens.
We will advise you if a charge is payable to process your request and the amount of any such charge as soon as possible.
We make the following assumptions that affect the scope of the request. These are set out below.
It is our usual practice:
* not to disclose the personal information of government employees or the personal contact details of senior government employees (including those of the Treasury). The names of senior officers will generally be released.
* not to release duplicates of any document captured within the scope of the request.
* only the final version of a document will be considered within scope.
Please inform us if you do not agree to the request being processed on the above assumptions. If we do not hear from you, your request will be processed on the basis that these documents are outside the scope of your request.
We will contact you using the email address you provided. Please advise if you would prefer us to use an alternative means of contact.
If you have any questions in relation to your application, please contact the FOI Team on 02 6263 2800.
Kind regards
Freedom of Information Officer
The Treasury
Ph: +61 2 6263 2800
e: [email address]
The Department of the Treasury (the Treasury) may collect your personal information where it is reasonably necessary for, or directly related to, our functions, including those under the Freedom of Information Act 1982 (FOI Act) and the Privacy Act 1988. We may collect your name, email address and telephone number in order to contact you about your request or privacy complaint. We hold personal information in accordance with the Privacy Act and our privacy policy. If you have an enquiry or complaint about your privacy, please contact the Privacy Officer on 02 6263 1384 or via e-mail [email address]. You can find further information about how the Treasury handles personal information in the Treasury's privacy policy.
Please Note: The information contained in this e-mail message and any attached files may be confidential information and may also be the subject of legal professional privilege. If you are not the intended recipient, any use, disclosure or copying of this e-mail is unauthorised. If you have received this e-mail by error please notify the sender immediately by reply e-mail and delete all copies of this transmission together with any attachments.
OFFICIAL
Dear FOI Officer,
Thank you for the acknowledgement. I am happy to proceed on the basis of those assumptions.
I look forward to hearing from you soon.
Yours sincerely,
Francis Markham
OFFICIAL
Dear Mr Markham,
We would be grateful for your agreement to a one-day extension of time under section 15AA of the FOI Act. Agreeing to this extension will allow Treasury to release documents to you on Friday 14 March 2025.
We would be grateful for your response by COB Friday 28 February 2025.
Kind regards,
Freedom of Information Officer
The Treasury
Ph: +-61 2 6263 2800
e: foi+AEA-treasury.gov.au
The Department of the Treasury (the Treasury) may collect your personal information where it is reasonably necessary for, or directly related to, our functions, including those under the Freedom of Information Act 1982 (FOI Act) and the Privacy Act 1988. We may collect your name, email address and telephone number in order to contact you about your request or privacy complaint. We hold personal information in accordance with the Privacy Act and our privacy policy. If you have an enquiry or complaint about your privacy, please contact the Privacy Officer on 02 6263 1384 or via e-mail +AFs-email address+AF0-. You can find further information about how the Treasury handles personal information in the Treasury's privacy policy.
Please Note: The information contained in this e-mail message and any attached files may be confidential information and may also be the subject of legal professional privilege. If you are not the intended recipient, any use, disclosure or copying of this e-mail is unauthorised. If you have received this e-mail by error please notify the sender immediately by reply e-mail and delete all copies of this transmission together with any attachments.
OFFICIAL
-----Original Message-----
From: Francis Markham +ADw-foi+-request-12824-debefc3a+AEA-righttoknow.org.au+AD4-
Sent: Tuesday, 18 February 2025 12:15 PM
To: FOI +ADw-FOI+AEA-TREASURY.GOV.AU+AD4-
Subject: Re: FOI 3858 acknowledgement +AFs-SEC+AD0-OFFICIAL+AF0-
+AFs-You don't often get email from foi+-request-12824-debefc3a+AEA-righttoknow.org.au. Learn why this is important at https://aka.ms/LearnAboutSenderIdentific... +AF0-
OFFICIAL
Dear FOI Officer,
Thank you for the acknowledgement. I am happy to proceed on the basis of those assumptions.
I look forward to hearing from you soon.
Yours sincerely,
Francis Markham
-----Original Message-----
OFFICIAL
Dear Mr Markham
We write to acknowledge receipt of your request, under the Freedom of Information Act 1982 (FOI Act) on 11 February 2025. The FOI Act provides that we have 14 days to acknowledge, and 30 days to process, the request. This period may be extended if we need to consult third parties or for other reasons. We will advise you if this happens.
We will advise you if a charge is payable to process your request and the amount of any such charge as soon as possible.
We make the following assumptions that affect the scope of the request. These are set out below.
It is our usual practice:
+ACo- not to disclose the personal information of government employees or the personal contact details of senior government employees (including those of the Treasury). The names of senior officers will generally be released.
+ACo- not to release duplicates of any document captured within the scope of the request.
+ACo- only the final version of a document will be considered within scope.
Please inform us if you do not agree to the request being processed on the above assumptions. If we do not hear from you, your request will be processed on the basis that these documents are outside the scope of your request.
We will contact you using the email address you provided. Please advise if you would prefer us to use an alternative means of contact.
If you have any questions in relation to your application, please contact the FOI Team on 02 6263 2800.
Kind regards
Freedom of Information Officer
The Treasury
Ph: +-61 2 6263 2800
e: +AFs-email address+AF0-
The Department of the Treasury (the Treasury) may collect your personal information where it is reasonably necessary for, or directly related to, our functions, including those under the Freedom of Information Act 1982 (FOI Act) and the Privacy Act 1988. We may collect your name, email address and telephone number in order to contact you about your request or privacy complaint. We hold personal information in accordance with the Privacy Act and our privacy policy. If you have an enquiry or complaint about your privacy, please contact the Privacy Officer on 02 6263 1384 or via e-mail +AFs-email address+AF0-. You can find further information about how the Treasury handles personal information in the Treasury's privacy policy.
Please Note: The information contained in this e-mail message and any attached files may be confidential information and may also be the subject of legal professional privilege. If you are not the intended recipient, any use, disclosure or copying of this e-mail is unauthorised. If you have received this e-mail by error please notify the sender immediately by reply e-mail and delete all copies of this transmission together with any attachments.
OFFICIAL
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Please use this email address for all replies to this request:
foi+-request-12824-debefc3a+AEA-righttoknow.org.au
This request has been made by an individual using Right to Know. This message and any reply that you make will be published on the internet. More information on how Right to Know works can be found at:
https://www.righttoknow.org.au/help/offi...
Please note that in some cases publication of requests and responses will be delayed.
If you find this service useful as an FOI officer, please ask your web manager to link to us from your organisation's FOI page.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
OFFICIAL
Please Note: The information contained in this e-mail message and any attached files may be confidential information and may also be the subject of legal professional privilege. If you are not the intended recipient, any use, disclosure or copying of this e-mail is unauthorised. If you have received this e-mail by error please notify the sender immediately by reply e-mail and delete all copies of this transmission together with any attachments.
OFFICIAL
Dear Mr Markham,
Please see the FOI 3858 decision and documents attached.
Kind regards,
Freedom of Information Officer
The Treasury
Ph: +61 2 6263 2800
e: [1][email address]
The Department of the Treasury (the Treasury) may collect your personal
information where it is reasonably necessary for, or directly related to,
our functions, including those under the Freedom of Information Act 1982
(FOI Act) and the Privacy Act 1988. We may collect your name, email
address and telephone number in order to contact you about your request or
privacy complaint. We hold personal information in accordance with the
Privacy Act and our privacy policy. If you have an enquiry or complaint
about your privacy, please contact the Privacy Officer on 02 6263 1384 or
via e-mail [2][email address]. You can find further information
about how the Treasury handles personal information in the Treasury’s
[3]privacy policy.
If you have received this email in error, please notify us immediately by
return email and delete all copies. If this email or any attachments have
been sent to you in error, that error does not constitute waiver of any
confidentiality, privilege or copyright in respect of information
contained within the email or attachments.
Please Note: The information contained in this e-mail message and any
attached files may be confidential information and may also be the subject
of legal professional privilege. If you are not the intended recipient,
any use, disclosure or copying of this e-mail is unauthorised. If you have
received this e-mail by error please notify the sender immediately by
reply e-mail and delete all copies of this transmission together with any
attachments.
OFFICIAL
References
Visible links
1. mailto:[email address]
2. mailto:[email address]
3. https://treasury.gov.au/privacy-policy
Dear Department of the Treasury FOI Team,
I refer to the decision made by Mr. Daniel Ledda dated 14 March 2025 in relation to my FOI request (reference 3858) concerning documents that model, estimate, or otherwise quantify the decline in demand for legal tobacco due to behavioral responses to tobacco excise rate increases.
Pursuant to section 54 of the Freedom of Information Act 1982, I am writing to request an internal review of the decision to exempt Documents 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 either in part or in full under section 47E(d) of the FOI Act.
I submit that the grounds for exemption under section 47E(d) are not adequately established in the decision for the following reasons:
1. The claimed potential for exploitation is implausible
The decision maker claims that disclosure "could reasonably be expected to lead to attempts to exploit or speculate on future measures impacting tobacco excise and revenue calculations, including the potential for modelling being manipulated to project incorrect or misleading information."
This claim is implausible and lacks substantiation. The modeling methodologies used by Treasury would be based on economic principles and publicly available data. Knowledge of these methodologies would provide the tobacco industry with little capability to manipulate future government decisions that they do not already possess. Major tobacco companies already employ sophisticated economic modeling capabilities and have access to more detailed industry data than the government.
The decision fails to demonstrate a link between disclosure of the requested information and any "substantial adverse effect" on Treasury operations.
2. Any attempt to manipulate government processes would be illegal
If tobacco industry actors were to attempt to use this information to manipulate government processes by providing misleading tax data to the government, as implied, they would potentially be engaged in illegal activity. The potential for information to be misused for illegal purposes is not a valid ground for exemption under the FOI Act. Otherwise, virtually any government information could be withheld on the basis that someone might misuse it.
The proper remedy for potential illegal misuse of information is enforcement of existing laws against such activities, not withholding information from the public.
3. Potential embarrassment is not a valid ground for exemption
While not explicitly stated in the decision, there is an implication that disclosure of the methodologies might expose deficiencies or limitations in Treasury's modeling approaches. I note that potential embarrassment or revelation of errors in government methodologies is not a valid ground for exemption under the FOI Act.
The Information Commissioner has consistently held that protecting agencies from criticism or scrutiny is contrary to the objects of the FOI Act, which aims to promote scrutiny, discussion, comment and review of government activities.
4. The public interest strongly favors disclosure
The public interest in understanding how Treasury models the effects of tobacco excise increases is significant. This information is crucial for:
a. Evaluating the effectiveness of tobacco control policies
b. Assessing whether government revenue projections are reasonable
c. Understanding the relationship between tax policy and public health outcomes
d. Enabling independent researchers to verify and build upon government methodologies
These public interest factors substantially outweigh any speculative adverse effects on agency operations.
5. The capacity for informed public debate requires disclosure
The decision maker states that one factor against disclosure is "the capability of public debate about this issue without disclosure of the documents." However, meaningful and informed public debate about the effectiveness of tobacco taxation policy requires access to the methodologies used to assess that effectiveness. Without such access, public debate is unnecessarily constrained.
I therefore request that an internal review be conducted by an officer not involved in the original decision, and that the reviewer reconsider the application of section 47E(d) exemptions to Documents 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 in light of these submissions.
Thank you for your consideration of this matter.
Yours sincerely,
Francis Markham
OFFICIAL
Dear Mr Markham
The Treasury acknowledges receipt of your internal review request for FOI 3858 on 17 March 2025.
Kind regards,
Freedom of Information Officer
The Treasury
Ph: +-61 2 6263 2800
e: foi+AEA-treasury.gov.au
The Department of the Treasury (the Treasury) may collect your personal information where it is reasonably necessary for, or directly related to, our functions, including those under the Freedom of Information Act 1982 (FOI Act) and the Privacy Act 1988. We may collect your name, email address and telephone number in order to contact you about your request or privacy complaint. We hold personal information in accordance with the Privacy Act and our privacy policy. If you have an enquiry or complaint about your privacy, please contact the Privacy Officer on 02 6263 1384 or via e-mail privacy+AEA-treasury.gov.au. You can find further information about how the Treasury handles personal information in the Treasury+IBk-s privacy policy.
If you have received this email in error, please notify us immediately by return email and delete all copies. If this email or any attachments have been sent to you in error, that error does not constitute waiver of any confidentiality, privilege or copyright in respect of information contained within the email or attachments.
OFFICIAL
-----Original Message-----
From: Francis Markham +ADw-foi+-request-12824-debefc3a+AEA-righttoknow.org.au+AD4-
Sent: Monday, 17 March 2025 11:39 AM
To: FOI +ADw-FOI+AEA-TREASURY.GOV.AU+AD4-
Subject: Internal review of Freedom of Information request - Documents containing estimates of the decline in demand for legal tobacco due to behavioral responses to excise rate increases
Dear Department of the Treasury FOI Team,
I refer to the decision made by Mr. Daniel Ledda dated 14 March 2025 in relation to my FOI request (reference 3858) concerning documents that model, estimate, or otherwise quantify the decline in demand for legal tobacco due to behavioral responses to tobacco excise rate increases.
Pursuant to section 54 of the Freedom of Information Act 1982, I am writing to request an internal review of the decision to exempt Documents 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 either in part or in full under section 47E(d) of the FOI Act.
I submit that the grounds for exemption under section 47E(d) are not adequately established in the decision for the following reasons:
1. The claimed potential for exploitation is implausible
The decision maker claims that disclosure +ACI-could reasonably be expected to lead to attempts to exploit or speculate on future measures impacting tobacco excise and revenue calculations, including the potential for modelling being manipulated to project incorrect or misleading information.+ACI-
This claim is implausible and lacks substantiation. The modeling methodologies used by Treasury would be based on economic principles and publicly available data. Knowledge of these methodologies would provide the tobacco industry with little capability to manipulate future government decisions that they do not already possess. Major tobacco companies already employ sophisticated economic modeling capabilities and have access to more detailed industry data than the government.
The decision fails to demonstrate a link between disclosure of the requested information and any +ACI-substantial adverse effect+ACI- on Treasury operations.
2. Any attempt to manipulate government processes would be illegal
If tobacco industry actors were to attempt to use this information to manipulate government processes by providing misleading tax data to the government, as implied, they would potentially be engaged in illegal activity. The potential for information to be misused for illegal purposes is not a valid ground for exemption under the FOI Act. Otherwise, virtually any government information could be withheld on the basis that someone might misuse it.
The proper remedy for potential illegal misuse of information is enforcement of existing laws against such activities, not withholding information from the public.
3. Potential embarrassment is not a valid ground for exemption
While not explicitly stated in the decision, there is an implication that disclosure of the methodologies might expose deficiencies or limitations in Treasury's modeling approaches. I note that potential embarrassment or revelation of errors in government methodologies is not a valid ground for exemption under the FOI Act.
The Information Commissioner has consistently held that protecting agencies from criticism or scrutiny is contrary to the objects of the FOI Act, which aims to promote scrutiny, discussion, comment and review of government activities.
4. The public interest strongly favors disclosure
The public interest in understanding how Treasury models the effects of tobacco excise increases is significant. This information is crucial for:
a. Evaluating the effectiveness of tobacco control policies b. Assessing whether government revenue projections are reasonable c. Understanding the relationship between tax policy and public health outcomes d. Enabling independent researchers to verify and build upon government methodologies
These public interest factors substantially outweigh any speculative adverse effects on agency operations.
5. The capacity for informed public debate requires disclosure
The decision maker states that one factor against disclosure is +ACI-the capability of public debate about this issue without disclosure of the documents.+ACI- However, meaningful and informed public debate about the effectiveness of tobacco taxation policy requires access to the methodologies used to assess that effectiveness. Without such access, public debate is unnecessarily constrained.
I therefore request that an internal review be conducted by an officer not involved in the original decision, and that the reviewer reconsider the application of section 47E(d) exemptions to Documents 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 in light of these submissions.
Thank you for your consideration of this matter.
Yours sincerely,
Francis Markham
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Please use this email address for all replies to this request:
foi+-request-12824-debefc3a+AEA-righttoknow.org.au
This request has been made by an individual using Right to Know. This message and any reply that you make will be published on the internet. More information on how Right to Know works can be found at:
https://www.righttoknow.org.au/help/offi...
Please note that in some cases publication of requests and responses will be delayed.
If you find this service useful as an FOI officer, please ask your web manager to link to us from your organisation's FOI page.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Please Note: The information contained in this e-mail message and any attached files may be confidential information and may also be the subject of legal professional privilege. If you are not the intended recipient, any use, disclosure or copying of this e-mail is unauthorised. If you have received this e-mail by error please notify the sender immediately by reply e-mail and delete all copies of this transmission together with any attachments.