Documents containing estimates of the decline in demand for legal tobacco due to behavioral responses to excise rate increases
Dear Department of the Treasury,
I am writing to request a copy of documents prepared by Treasury since 1 January 2018 that model, estimate, or otherwise quantify the decline in demand for legal tobacco due — in whole or in part — to behavioral responses to tobacco excise rate increases. Please include any documents describing the methodology and methods used to produce such models, estimates or quantifications.
Such documents are alluded to in the "BACK POCKET BRIEF – Illicit tobacco" (FOI 3812, Document 2) which states that:
"The illicit market is driven by a multitude of factors of which the duty rate is only one... When costing increases to excise rates Treasury estimates the decline in demand for legal tobacco due to behavioural responses. This decline in demand includes, for example, a reduction in tax collections due to consumers deciding to quit smoking as well as consumers shifting to the illicit market."
Yours faithfully,
Francis Markham
OFFICIAL
Dear Mr Markham
We write to acknowledge receipt of your request, under the Freedom of Information Act 1982 (FOI Act) on 11 February 2025. The FOI Act provides that we have 14 days to acknowledge, and 30 days to process, the request. This period may be extended if we need to consult third parties or for other reasons. We will advise you if this happens.
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Kind regards
Freedom of Information Officer
The Treasury
Ph: +61 2 6263 2800
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OFFICIAL
Dear FOI Officer,
Thank you for the acknowledgement. I am happy to proceed on the basis of those assumptions.
I look forward to hearing from you soon.
Yours sincerely,
Francis Markham