14 March 2025
FOI ref: 3858
Mr Francis Markham
By email: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx@xxxxxxxxxxx.xxx.xx
Dear Mr Markham
FREEDOM OF INFORMATION REQUEST – DECISION
I refer to your request to Treasury on 11 February 2025 for access, under the Freedom of
Information Act 1982 (FOI Act), to the following:
I am writing to request a copy of documents prepared by Treasury since 1 January 2018
that model, estimate, or otherwise quantify the decline in demand for legal tobacco due
— in whole or in part — to behavioral responses to tobacco excise rate increases. Please
include any documents describing the methodology and methods used to produce such
models, estimates or quantifications.
Such documents are alluded to in the "BACK POCKET BRIEF – Illicit tobacco" (FOI 3812,
Document 2) which states that:
"The illicit market is driven by a multitude of factors of which the duty rate is only one...
When costing increases to excise rates Treasury estimates the decline in demand for
legal tobacco due to behavioural responses. This decline in demand includes, for
example, a reduction in tax collections due to consumers deciding to quit smoking as well
as consumers shifting to the illicit market."
I am an authorised decision maker under section 23 of the FOI Act.
Decision
The Treasury has identified seven documents within scope of your request, listed in the
attached schedule. I have decided to release one document in full (Document 5). I have
decided to refuse access to three documents in full (Documents 4, 6 and 7). The remaining
documents are being released in part. Irrelevant information in the documents has been
deleted under section 22 of the FOI Act. My decision on each document is shown in the
schedule.
The documents for release are attached.
Further information regarding my decision is set out below.
Langton Crescent
Parkes ACT 2600
Australia
P: +61 2 6263 2800
Material Considered
The material to which I have had regard in making this decision includes the scope of the
request and content of the documents subject to your request, third party consultation
responses, the relevant provisions in the FOI Act and Guidelines issued by the Australian
Information Commissioner under section 93A of the FOI Act (FOI Guidelines), and advice from
subject matter experts within the Treasury and the Australian Taxation Office (ATO).
Reasons for decision
Material deleted pursuant to Section 22
Section 22 of the FOI Act allows information that is irrelevant to your request to be deleted.
The documents contain the names and contact details of government employees below the
Senior Executive Service (SES) level. We informed you in our acknowledgement email that it is
our usual practice not to include the personal information of non-SES government employees
and invited you to inform us if you did not agree with us processing the request on this basis.
As you agreed with this request, the personal information of government employees has been
deleted under section 22 of the FOI Act.
Section 47E(d) – Operations of agencies
Section 47E(d) of the FOI Act provides that a document is conditionally exempt if its disclosure
would, or could reasonably be expected to, have a substantial adverse effect on the proper
and efficient operations of an agency.
Documents 2 and 3 contain information from which internal Treasury email addresses could
reasonably be ascertained. These internal email addresses are not publicly known. As the
Treasury has established channels of communication with members of the public, I consider
disclosure of the email address could result in unwarranted interference with the Treasury’s
internal and external communication processes to a substantial adverse degree.
Documents 2, 4, 6 and 7 contain material regarding methodologies for forecasting and the
costing of tobacco excise policies, for the purpose of informing government on policy
proposals. One of the Treasury’s core functions is taxation policy modelling and analysis, which
is underpinned by model code and analytical frameworks.
I consider that publication of this material could reasonably be expected to lead to attempts to
exploit or speculate on future measures impacting tobacco excise and revenue calculations,
including the potential for modelling being manipulated to project incorrect or misleading
information. This, in my view, would have a substantial adverse effect on the Treasury’s
operations. In addition, this would have a substantial adverse effect on the proper and
efficient conduct of the ATO’s operations, as the agency with general administration of excise
matters, including tobacco excise.
Further, in relation to Document 7, this material contains information related to internal
Treasury drive names, locations and file paths. In considering access to these materials, I have
given regard The Treasury’s obligations under the Protective Security Policy Framework (PSPF)
issued by the Department of Home Affairs which include maintaining robust cyber security
strategies (PSPF Policy 14).
Accordingly, I have decided that Documents 2 and 3 are conditionally exempt in part and
Documents 4, 6 and 7 are conditionally exempt in full under section 47E(d) of the FOI Act. My
consideration of the public interest is below.
2
Public interest
Section 11A(5) of the FOI Act provides that conditionally exempt material must be released
unless its disclosure would, on balance, be contrary to the public interest. Section 11B(3) sets
out public interest factors favouring release, and section 11B(4) sets out factors that must not
be taken into account. The FOI Guidelines set out factors in favour of, and against, releasing
conditionally exempt material.
In favour of the disclosure of the internal email addresses material, I consider disclosure would
promote the objects of the FOI Act. However, I discern no specific public interest in the release
of this information as it does not speak to the substance of your request. Further, I consider
there is a strong public interest in government agencies maintaining their internal channels of
communication without unwarranted interference.
In favour of the disclosure of the methodology, forecasting and costing material, I consider
disclosure would promote the objects of the FOI Act and increase scrutiny of government
decision making. Against disclosure, I have considered the following factors:
• the public interest in maintaining the ability of government agencies being able to share
comprehensive information to allow relevant agencies to understand a particular issue
before them;
• the public interest in preserving the integrity of government ICT systems and connected
software, in circumstances where disclosure of the relevant material would undermine the
effectiveness of those processes and inhibit the accuracy and completeness of agency
advice to government;
• the public interest in maintaining the integrity of the excise system, the compromisation of
which would undermine the effectiveness of ATO compliance action in excise matters; and
• the capability of public debate about this issue without disclosure of the documents.
Having regard to the factors in favour of and against disclosure, on balance, I consider the
public interest factors against disclosure override the factors in favour of disclosure. I have
therefore decided Documents 2 and 3 are exempt in part and Documents 4, 6 and 7 are
exempt in full under section 47E(d) of the FOI Act.
Rights of Review
A statement setting out your rights of review in this matter is attached.
Disclosure Log
The Treasury publishes documents disclosed in response to FOI requests on the Treasury
website. This is consistent with the arrangements established by section 11C of the FOI Act. In
this instance, I consider that the documents released to you are appropriate for publication on
the Treasury’s FOI disclosure log.
Yours sincerely
Daniel Ledda
Daniel Ledda
A/g Assistant Secretary
Tax Analysis Division
3
FOI 3858 Document Schedule
Doc No. Description
Decision
1.
‘FW: A dynamic demand model for
Release in part
tobacco’
-
Section 22 – irrelevant
information
2.
‘Tobacco: Forecasting, costing, & tax- Release in part
gap methodology’
-
Section 22 – irrelevant
information
-
Section 47E(d) – operations of
agencies
3.
‘Re: Update: Modelling tobacco
Release in part
elasticity’
-
Section 22 – irrelevant
information
-
Section 47E(d) – operations of
agencies
4.
Costing Note
Refuse in full
-
Section 47E(d) – operations of
agencies
5.
Tobacco Elasticities Model: Linar Release in full
versus lagged regression
6.
Tobacco excise model output
Refuse in full
-
Section 47E(d) – operations of
agencies
7.
Tobacco excise model code
Refuse in full
-
Section 47E(d) – operations of
agencies
4
INFORMATION ON RIGHTS OF REVIEW
1.
APPLICATION FOR INTERNAL REVIEW OF DECISION
Section 54 of the FOI Act gives you the right to apply for an internal review of the decision
refusing to grant access to documents in accordance with your request.
An application for a review of the decision must be made in writing within 30 days of receipt of
this letter.
No particular form is required but it would assist the decision-maker if you could set out in the
application the grounds on which you consider that the decision should be reviewed.
An application for a review of the decision should be emailed to xxx@xxxxxxxx.xxx.xx.
OR
2.
APPLICATION TO AUSTRALIAN INFORMATION COMMISSIONER (INFORMATION
COMMISSIONER) FOR REVIEW OF DECISION
Section 54L of the FOI Act gives you the right to seek a review of the decision from the
Information Commissioner. An application for review must be made within 60 days of
receiving the decision.
An application for review must be in writing and must:
– give details of how notices must be sent to you; and
– include a copy of the notice of decision.
You should send your application for review to:
The Information Commissioner
Office of the Australian Information Commissioner
GPO Box 5218
SYDNEY NSW 2001
AND/OR
3.
COMPLAINTS TO THE INFORMATION COMMISSIONER
Section 70 of the FOI Act provides that a person may complain to the Information
Commissioner about action taken by an agency in the exercise of powers or the performance
of functions under the FOI Act.
A complaint to the Information Commissioner must be in writing and identify the agency the
complaint is about. It should be directed to the fol owing address:
The Information Commissioner
Office of the Australian Information Commissioner
GPO Box 5218
SYDNEY NSW 2001
The Information Commissioner may decline to investigate the complaint in a number of
circumstances, including that you did not exercise your right to ask the agency, the
Information Commissioner, a court or tribunal to review the decision.
5
