Dear Grace,

We have no record of receiving any FOI request from you as detailed below.

I have now checked the Right to Know website and note that your question
is as follows:

---------------------------
Dear Reserve Bank of Australia,

I would like to request any research or analysis conducted by the RBA in
the period 2015 - 2019 on the probability that the cash rate would reach
0% in the future.

Yours faithfully,

Grace

-----------------------------

Given we did not receive the original request, I advise that we are
treating the request as having been received today. Accordingly, I
acknowledge receipt of it in terms of the FOI Act 1982 Cth and advise that
processing of it will commence tomorrow, 12 January 2023.

Yours sincerely

Phil Lomas | FOI Officer

RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA | 65 Martin Place, Sydney NSW 2000

p: +61 2 9551 9744 | e: [RBA request email] | w: www.rba.gov.au

show quoted sections

Dear Grace,

I refer to your recent request seeking:

any research or analysis conducted by the RBA in the period 2015 - 2019 on
the probability that the cash rate would reach 0% in the future

I advise that we have identified 17 documents relevant to your request and
I detail them below:

I have decided to release 14 of them to you either in full or redacted in
terms of section 22 to remove material that is irrelevant to your request.
They have also been redacted to remove junior officers’ (below Deputy Head
of Department level) personal details (i.e. names, phone numbers and email
addresses). The documents are attached to this email.

For the remaining three documents (15 to 17 above) I have decided to deny
access to them in terms of the following conditional exemptions in the
Freedom Of Information Act 1982 (Cth).
Section 47C(1) Public interest conditional exemptions — deliberative
processes

General rule
(1) A document is conditionally exempt if its disclosure under this Act
would disclose matter (deliberative matter) in the nature of, or relating
to, opinion, advice or recommendation obtained, prepared or recorded, or
consultation or deliberation that has taken place, in the course of, or
for the purposes of, the deliberative processes involved in the functions
of an agency or Minister or of the Government of the Commonwealth.

Exceptions
(2) Deliberative matter does not include either of the following:
(a) operational information (see section 8A);
(b) purely factual material.

Note: An agency must publish its operational information (see section 8).

(3) This section does not apply to any of the following:
(a) reports (including reports concerning the results of studies, surveys
or tests) of scientific or technical experts, whether employed within an
agency or not, including reports expressing the opinions of such experts
on scientific or technical matters;
(b) reports of a body or organisation, prescribed by the regulations, that
is established within an agency;
(c) the record of, or a formal statement of the reasons for, a final
decision given in the exercise of a power or of an adjudicative function.

Denial of access under this part is appropriate because the papers contain
summary analysis and interpretations and assessments of relevant data and
other information provided to the Reserve Bank Board, which may or may not
have led to a decision of the Board in relation to monetary policy. The
documents therefore constitute deliberative matter in terms of the Act.

As section 47C is a public interest conditional exemption, I am required
to consider factors in favour of disclosure against whether access to
the [1]documents would, on balance, be contrary to the public interest
([2]s11A(5)). In applying the public interest test, I have considered the
public interest factors in favour of disclosure, being the factors set out
in section [3]11B(3) of the FOI Act:
a. whether disclosure would promote the objects of the FOI Act (including
whether disclosing the documents would increase public participation in
RBA processes, with a view to promoting better-informed decision-making
and/or increase scrutiny, discussion, comment and review of the RBA’s
activities); in relation to this factor I have noted the characteristics
and content of the documents and have formed the view that disclosure of
the document would not promote those objects, and in fact could reasonably
be expected to have the opposite effect of curtailing the Board’s ability
to access and consider information pertinent to its responsibilities;

b. whether disclosure would inform debate on a matter of public
importance; for the same reasons as given in a. above, I have formed the
view that disclosure of the documents would not inform debate on a matter
of public importance, and also by reason that the Bank’s numerous public
discussions and releases of information outline the Bank’s and the Board’s
thinking in relation to the topic of the question;

c. whether disclosure would promote effective oversight of public
expenditure; given the nature and content of the documents, this factor is
not relevant; and

d. whether disclosure would allow a person to access his or her own
personal information; given the nature and content of the documents, this
factor is also not relevant.

In this instance the factors in section 11B(3) of the FOI Act (as detailed
above), when applied to the documents, do not favour disclosure, with the
result that release of the documents would, on balance, be contrary to the
public interest. I have therefore determined that release of the documents
would not be in the public interest and deny access to them.

47E(d) Public interest conditional exemptions—certain operations of
agencies

A document is conditionally exempt if its disclosure under this Act would,
or could reasonably be expected to, do any of the following:

(a) prejudice the effectiveness of procedures or methods for the conduct
of tests, examinations or audits by an agency;
(b) prejudice the attainment of the objects of particular tests,
examinations or audits conducted or to be conducted by an agency;

(c) have a substantial adverse effect on the management or assessment of
personnel by the Commonwealth, by Norfolk Island or by an agency;

(d) have a substantial adverse effect on the proper and efficient conduct
of the operations of an agency.

Denial of access under this part is appropriate because disclosure of the
documents would, or could reasonably be expected to, have a substantial
adverse effect on the proper and efficient conduct of the operations of
the Bank (in this case, the conduct of monetary policy). The documents
presented to the Board were for its consideration and intended to take
into account a wide range of available information. That information can
be sensitive, and it also needs to be as full and frank as possible so
that the Board is presented with the most complete picture available in
relation to the matters it is considering. It is my view that the ability
of the Bank to provide information to the Board as fully and frankly as
possible would be curtailed by disclosure of the documents, with a
resultant substantial adverse effect on the proper and efficient conduct
of the operations of the Bank.

As section 47E is a public interest conditional exemption, I am required
to consider factors in favour of disclosure against whether access to
the [4]documents would, on balance, be contrary to the public interest
([5]s11A(5)). In applying the public interest test I have considered the
public interest factors in favour of disclosure, being the factors set out
in section [6]11B(3) of the FOI Act:
a. whether disclosure would promote the objects of the FOI Act (including
whether disclosing the documents would increase public participation in
RBA processes, with a view to promoting better-informed decision-making
and/or increase scrutiny, discussion, comment and review of the RBA’s
activities); in relation to this factor, I have noted the characteristics
and content of the documents and have formed the view that disclosure of
the document would not promote those objects, and in fact could reasonably
be expected to have the opposite effect of curtailing the Board’s ability
to access and consider information pertinent to its responsibilities;

b. whether disclosure would inform debate on a matter of public
importance; for the same reasons as given in a. above, I have formed the
view that disclosure of the documents would not inform debate on a matter
of public importance, by reason that the Bank’s numerous public
discussions and releases of information outline the Bank and the Board’s
thinking in relation to the topic of the question;

c. whether disclosure would promote effective oversight of public
expenditure; given the nature and content of the documents, this factor is
not relevant; and

d. whether disclosure would allow a person to access his or her own
personal information; given the nature and content of the documents, this
factor is also not relevant;

In this instance, the factors in section 11B(3) of the FOI Act (as
detailed above), when applied to the documents, do not favour disclosure,
with the result that release of the documents would, on balance, be
contrary to the public interest. I have therefore determined that release
of the documents would not be in the public interest and that release of
the documents would, or could reasonably be expected to, undermine the
future fullness and frankness of material presented to the Board for its
consideration and curtail the Bank’s ability to include the widest range
of information in the papers presented to the Board. In my view, the
greater public interest is served by the Bank being able to present
material to the Board related to its monetary policy responsibilities
without the risk of limitation that public disclosure of the material
could impose on it.

In terms of the FOI Act, I advise that you have rights to review of my
decision if you are dissatisfied with it. You may apply as detailed below
for review of my decision.

Internal review

Under section 54 of the FOI Act, you may apply in writing to the Reserve
Bank of Australia for an internal review of my decision. The internal
review application must be made within 30 days of the date of this email,
and be lodged in one of the following ways:

email: [7][RBA request email]

post: Attn FOI Officer, SD, Reserve Bank of Australia, GPO Box 3947,
Sydney NSW 2001

Where possible, please attach reasons why you believe review of the
decision is necessary. The internal review will be carried out by another
officer within 30 days.

Information Commissioner review

Under section 54L of the FOI Act, you may apply to the Australian
Information Commissioner to review my decision. An application for review
by the Information Commissioner must be made in writing within 60 days of
the date of this email, and be lodged in one of the following ways:

online:
[8]https://forms.business.gov.au/smartforms...

email: [9][email address]

Yours sincerely

Anthony Dickman | Secretary
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA | 65 Martin Place, Sydney NSW 2000
p: +61 2 9551 9744 | e: [10][RBA request email] | w: [11]www.rba.gov.au

From: FOI
Sent: Wednesday, 11 January 2023 9:53 PM
To: Grace <[12][FOI #9677 email]>
Subject: RE: RBAFOI-222327 - Grace - Research 2015-2019 on the probability
that the cash rate would hit 0% - acknowledgement of request

Dear Grace,

We have no record of receiving any FOI request from you as detailed below.

I have now checked the Right to Know website and note that your question
is as follows:

---------------------------
Dear Reserve Bank of Australia,

I would like to request any research or analysis conducted by the RBA in
the period 2015 - 2019 on the probability that the cash rate would reach
0% in the future.

Yours faithfully,

Grace

-----------------------------

Given we did not receive the original request, I advise that we are
treating the request as having been received today. Accordingly, I
acknowledge receipt of it in terms of the FOI Act 1982 Cth and advise that
processing of it will commence tomorrow, 12 January 2023.

Yours sincerely

Phil Lomas | FOI Officer

RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA | 65 Martin Place, Sydney NSW 2000

p: +61 2 9551 9744 | e: [13][RBA request email] | w: [14]www.rba.gov.au

show quoted sections